Gut Versus Mind in Decision-Making
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Three questions
Have a go at answering these three questions – before you read further.
1) A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
2) If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets?
3) In a lake, there is a patch of lily-pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake?
What were your answers?
Gut reactions
The three questions make up the Cognitive Reflection Test, or CRT. The architect of the test, Professor Shane Frederick (now) of Yale, says CRT measures how far you resist the first response that enters your head.
In other words (and informally speaking), your answers reveal whether you make decisions on intuition, impulse, or ‘gut’; or whether you think through a question before drawing conclusions.
The test shows this preference because, alongside the correct response, each question suggests an intuitively appealing answer that many people arrive at with confidence – and yet which is wrong.
I’m curious – how did you find the quiz? Happy with your answers? Click the button below to email me your thoughts on the three questions. I’d enjoy a conversation.
Decision-making at work
Few of us contend with lily-pads breeding like triffids, and no shop these days sells a bat and ball for a dollar and change. Still, the tendency for thoughtful versus impulsive answers shapes workplace (and personal) outcomes.
On-the-fly decisions
Take meetings, for example. Quick, on-the-fly decisions are said to signal powerful leadership. We often criticise new managers for being hesitant to voice an opinion.
Across many workplaces, thinking time is seen to betray limited confidence. Senior managers and anyone hoping to get ahead are under relentless pressure to give answers in short order.
Following your gut is valued in our management culture — we learn that ‘true leadership’ is more about instinct than thoughtfulness.
And, rapid decisions can add value: indeed, when people fail to make decisions, teams become stuck in a rut, which drains energy, undermines relationships, and harms outcomes.
Thoughtful in a complex world
But, thoughtfulness matters too, especially in a complex world: whilst intuitive decisions may be sound and often look impressive, they may also be wrong, shaped by prevailing and faulty assumptions, often with disastrous results.
When we do not pause to think things through, or to examine a question from various angles, we may end up in a game of whack-a-mole: we answer one need only to create a raft of problems elsewhere. This cycle can be endless.
Imagine also the cumulative risk of hundreds of small decisions taken without regard for hidden complexities. Blinded, say, by assumptions about our own products, industry disruption and new demands may disappear from view.
Tthe world needs energy, but carbon brings consequences. We did not reach the 2008 financial crisis by thinking beyond near-term gains.
And what about the businesses, more than half, that now regret replacing people with AI?
On second thoughts
The workplace is complex. Here are a few ideas for resisting knee-jerk reactions that may take you and your teams off track.
Do not, of course, analyse every decision ad nauseam. But, it is invaluable, first, to understand your own preference for impulsive versus thoughtful decision-making.
Second, having reached a decision, step back and ask, ‘Have I looked at this enough?’ Few people, once committed, have the courage to ask this question.
Third, avoid the impulse to say what first comes to mind, especially if this serves mainly to endorse a powerful colleague.
Finally, if someone in your team pauses before holding forth on a topic, it may be worth the wait. The person who bucks the trend (here, to jump in with an opinion) often makes the difference.
The trick, of course, is to find a suitable balance between deliberation and moving forward.
In Confidence
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